Lebanonโs government has announced a timeline for Hezbollahโs disarmament, saying the military would set out a plan to bring all weapons under state authority before the end of 2025.
This comes after months of pressure from the United States after Israelโs war on Lebanon killed more than 4,000 people and culminated in a ceasefire in November. Israel has continuously violated the ceasefire and still occupies five points in Lebanon.
Hezbollahโs arms have long been a contentious issue in Lebanon, and attempts to interfere in Hezbollahโs infrastructure or military capabilities have led to internal conflict.
However, Hezbollah took heavy losses in Israeli attacks last year, which diminished its status as Lebanonโs political and military hegemon.
As the issue of disarming Hezbollah heats up, hereโs what you need to know about the governmentโs announcement on Tuesday and the situation in Lebanon:
What did Hezbollah say?
It doesnโt like the disarmament plan.
In fact, Hezbollah said it would treat the decision as though it didnโt exist.
โThe government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam committed a grave sin by taking a decision to strip Lebanon of its weapons to resist the Israeli enemy. โฆ This decision fully serves Israelโs interest,โ the group said in a statement.
Despite its flat-out rejection of the governmentโs decision, Hezbollah has yet to respond with force.
Under its late leader Hassan Nasrallah, the group threatened that any act taken against its arms could lead to civil war.
This time, Hezbollah has not taken military action, possibly a result of a change in its strategy or because of its weakened capacity after the war.
Rumours circulated during a cabinet session on Tuesday that Hezbollah supporters in black shirts were gathering along the highway in Khaldeh, just south of Beirut, but that turned out to be a restaurant celebrating reaching one million followers on Instagram.
Pro-Hezbollah protesters did briefly block the airport road in Beirut after the governmentโs decision, but little else has manifested despite heightened domestic concerns.
What about Iran, Hezbollahโs backer?
Iran voiced support for Hezbollah but said it has no role in shaping the groupโs decisions or policy.
The comments came from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said the efforts to disarm Hezbollah wouldnโt work.
โโThis is not the first time theyโve tried to strip Hezbollah of its weapons,โ Araghchi said. โThe reason is clear: The power of resistance has proven itself in the field.โ
Iran played a formative role in founding Hezbollah in 1982 during the heat of the Lebanese Civil War and has been the groupโs main benefactor ever since.
But since Israelโs war on Lebanon, Iranโs ability to support Hezbollah has taken a major hit. The Lebanese government has blocked flights from Tehran, and the fall of Bashar al-Assadโs regime in neighbouring Syria has blocked the land route used to transport funding and weapons.
How did Lebanon respond?
Iranโs comments angered some Lebanese officials.
Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi said Araghchiโs statement is โfirmly rejected and condemnedโ.
โSuch statements undermine Lebanonโs sovereignty, unity and stability and constitute an unacceptable interference in its internal matters and sovereign decisions,โ Raggi said.
Is disarmament going to happen?
This remains to be seen.
Salam said after a follow-up cabinet meeting on Thursday that his ministers approved the โobjectivesโ of a US proposal for โensuring that the possession of weapons is restricted solely to the stateโ.
โThe government is now expected to formally commit to disarming Hezbollah, a decision that could โฆ ignite a political crisis,โ Al Jazeeraโs Beirut correspondent Zeina Khodr said.
Hezbollah has yet to respond forcefully, and anti-Hezbollah politicians have used increasingly bold rhetoric.
โIf there is a cost to be able to centralise the weapons with the โฆ Lebanese armed forces, [it may be] better like that,โ Elias Hankash, a Lebanese MP with the anti-Hezbollah Kataeb party, said.
President Joseph Aoun and Salam will have to navigate US pressure and domestic support for disarming Hezbollah with opposition from the group and its supporters, who are reeling from Israelโs war.
The World Bank has said Lebanon needs $11bn for reconstruction and recovery, the vast majority of which is needed in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and Beirutโs suburbs, where most of Hezbollahโs support is based.
Have any Hezbollah members expressed discontent with disarmament?
Plenty of discontent has been expressed.
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the idea, saying the groupโs disarmament would make Lebanon vulnerable to attack and would serve only Israel.
Ali Mokdad, a Hezbollah MP, also dismissed the decision, calling it โink on paperโ. Another Hezbollah MP, Mohammad Raad, said the decision could never be implemented and compared Hezbollah giving up its weapons to โsuicideโ.
What are things like right now?
Tensions were heightened on Saturday when six Lebanese soldiers were killed while inspecting an alleged Hezbollah weapons site.
Hezbollah reportedly booby-trapped sites in southern Lebanon during the war in case invading Israeli soldiers came upon them.
Many from Lebanonโs south are antagonistic towards Beirut, feeling the government has not been able to defend the south, which continues to suffer from daily Israeli attacks. Residents also lament the lack of public statements about the deaths from those attacks.
