Pro-EU candidate takes narrow lead in Polish presidential election, exit poll says

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Pro-EU candidate Rafał Trzaskowski was inching towards winning Poland’s presidential run-off vote on Sunday after exit polls gave him a razor-thin lead over his rightwing opponent.

An Ipsos exit poll showed Trzaskowski, the Warsaw mayor representing Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centre-right Civic Platform party, winning 50.3 per cent of votes against 49.7 per cent for Karol Nawrocki, a historian standing for the nationalist opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The outcome of the run-off, if confirmed by final results, would allow Tusk to proceed with his reform agenda. It would deal another blow to Donald Trump’s Maga movement abroad, following election defeats for rightwing politicians aligned with the US president in Canada, Australia and Romania. 

Speaking before jubilant supporters in Warsaw a few minutes after the exit poll, Trzaskowski declared victory in an “incredibly close” run-off. He promised to be “the president of all Poles” and work to paper over the bitter and deep faultlines in Polish society that the election underlined. 

“The first task of the president will be to reach out to all those who did not vote for me,” Trzaskowski said. “I will do everything so that we can regain the ability to have a normal, calm conversation.”

Far from conceding defeat, Nawrocki told his supporters that “we will win and save Poland”, warning against allowing Tusk to have “a monopoly on power”. Nawrocki concluded his speech by calling the exit poll difference “so minimal” that Poland would start Monday with him as president.

“We have to win tonight and we know that we will,” he added.

The electoral commission says it hopes final results will be announced on Monday morning or early afternoon.

Ahead of Sunday’s vote, Tusk had warned voters that Nawrocki could not only scuttle his reforms but also weaken Poland’s role in the EU amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

Tusk has faced an institutional deadlock because outgoing President Andrzej Duda, another PiS nominee, has wielded his veto powers to block Tusk’s planned judicial overhaul and other reforms since Tusk’s coalition ousted the party from office in 2023.